Taking Donald Trump at his word of reinstating the ban on transgender people in the military, Democrats are seeking to block this move with the introduction of a new bill.

Speaking at the Turning Point USA event in December, the president-elect touted, “With a stroke of my pen on day one, we are going to stop the transgender lunacy. I will sign executive orders to end child sexual mutilation, get transgender out of the military and out of our elementary schools and middle schools and high schools. And we will keep men out of women’s sports.”

It was this promise that motivated Two House Democrats, Representatives Sara Jacobs (D-Calif) and Eric Sorensen (D-Ill.), to put forth a proposal, titled the Ensuring Military Readiness Not Discrimination Act, to stop him in his tracks. The introduced legislation would essentially prevent the armed forces from hiring or firing someone because of their gender identity or sex characteristics.

More than just defending the right to serve, both Jacobs and Sorensen represent much for the LGBTQ+ community within the government body. Sorensen is one of the 13 openly queer lawmakers in the house, while Jacobs is a co-chair of the Congressional Equality Caucus’s Transgender Equality Task Force in addition to having transgender and non-conforming siblings.

While the exact number of openly transgender people serving in the military is unknown, as the Department of Defense does not regularly collect data on gender identity, there have been studies to suggest what effect a ban might have. 

The Williams Institute, a public policy research organization affiliated with the University of California, Los Angeles School of Law, estimated in 2014 that roughly 15,500 transgender people were serving on active duty or in the guard or reserve forces, and another 134,000 were veterans. In 2018, the Palm Center, a think tank focused on gender, sexuality and the military, estimated 14,700 transgender troops are serving in the military.

“Kicking nearly 15,000 service members out of the military solely because of their identity would be catastrophic to our military readiness and recruitment,” said Jacobs, citing the studies available. “Anyone willing and able to sacrifice to defend our country should be able to do so without fear of discrimination, period,” Sorensen added.

Emily Shilling, president of SPARTA, a transgender military organization that has endorsed Jacobs and Sorensen’s bill, said bans similar to the one proposed by the incoming Trump administration could cost the government up to $18 billion in lost investments.

“If it were a fairly fast-moving ban, you would be pulling these individuals out of their units, leaving critical gaps in skill sets, experience, and leadership positions that you’re just not going to be able to fill with equivalent people anytime soon, especially given the shortfalls in recruiting,” Shilling told Erin Reed, an American journalist and transgender rights activist, in November.“If the incoming Trump Administration reinstates the transgender military ban and discharges all trans service members, it would take 20 years and cost $18 billion to replace the talent and expertise we’ve lost,” Jacobs said in a statement, referring to Shilling’s calculation.

“The key is that Republicans are currently focusing on culture wars instead of actually focusing on our national security, because to me it makes no sense in a recruitment- and retention-challenging environment to be letting [so many] service members go. We’ve invested a lot of time and money in training.”

While Jacobs and Sorensen’s bill does have the ideals of both sides of the aisle in mind, given many Republicans are watching themselves intensely due to Trump’s return to office, there is a waning confidence that the legislation may be brought up to vote on.

“It’s doubtful,” Jacobs said. “I know some of my Republican colleagues do really understand the sort of recruitment, retention and readiness challenges that we’re facing. So I’m hopeful, but I think they’re all kind of falling in line at the moment.”

Even as Republicans have used transgender citizens as a tool for electoral success and fundraising, threatening bans involving school sports and medical care, voters may be less enthralled. Regarding a trans military band, according to a 2021 Gallup Poll, 66 percent of Americans were found in support of allowing trans people to serve in the military.