Leading election forecasters have declared North Carolina a “toss up” in the upcoming election, marking a change from the state’s history of leaning Republican.
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball a free, nonpartisan weekly online political newsletter and website produced by the University of Virginia announced August 20 that North Carolina — which was originally shifting in favor of Trump — has become an even battleground, which can be attributed to growing support for vice president and Democratic Presidential nominee Kamala Harris.
North Carolina is one of seven states classified as a “toss up” state — the rest include Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.
“This is the first time this cycle that we have moved any electoral votes away from the Republican column into the Toss-up column,” analysts wrote.
Analysts also stated North Carolina may be even more in play for Democrats than Georgia was in 2020, where voters managed to flip the state for Joe Biden and give the U.S. Senate a Democratic majority.
Sabato’s also notes there are several contributing factors in this shift. One of which was when it was announced Gov. Roy Cooper was being considered as a vice presidential candidate for Harris. This generated a lot of excitement among North Carolina voters, as only 33% of voters have an unfavorable opinion on Cooper.
Harris is also polling better in North Carolina in comparison to Georgia, though forecasters are expecting Georgia to move “more left” as November approaches.
“All that said, both states are close enough — and similar enough to the other key swing states in this election — that we don’t think it makes sense to rate one as Toss-up and the other as Leans Republican anymore,” they wrote. “Hence our rating change today.”
According to Sabato’s analysts, North Carolina is still the “reddest” of the swing states. Because of this, it’s unclear if the state will flip to Harris in November. But all of that could change in the coming weeks.
“Now that the election is getting closer and we are almost past the conventions, the polls probably should carry more weight, imperfect instruments though they are,” they wrote.
Analysts concluded their report by stating if Harris can build on the momentum and the support she’s garnered so far, “it may be that one or more of these ‘Magnificent Seven,’ to borrow the famous movie title, won’t be toss-ups anymore.”