The 2024 election is an entirely different race than it was one month ago.
On July 21, Joe Biden announced he would no longer be seeking reelection and instead endorsed his running mate Kamala Harris to be the new Democratic nominee. The days following Biden’s announcement and Harris kicking off her historic bid for president have ignited a sense of hope in many Americans, and recent polling data has reflected this.
After Biden’s disappointing debate performance, Trump had a lead of over three percent over the incumbent president. However, in a matchup against Harris, polling data shows the former president trailing by almost three percent nationally.
Harris has also gained ground in critical swing states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. In each of these states, Harris leads Trump 50% to 46%, marking a significant jump from where Biden was among those same voters.
In North Carolina, Democratic candidates have also made significant strides. Most specifically in the gubernatorial race, Democrat Josh Stein has grown his lead over Republican Mark Robinson by at least four percentage points in the polls that have come out since Harris entered the presidential race.
North Carolina based publication Carolina Journal had its own survey, and it found Stein was favored by likely voters with a total of nearly five percentage points. For the presidential race, Harris still trails Trump in North Carolina by about three percentage points according to a poll through the John Locke Foundation, though it is believed she will likely close that gap before early voting and election day.
“The poll indicates that Josh Stein holds an advantage in voter trust over Mark Robinson, on the issues of the economy, education, and crime,” said John Locke Foundation CEO Donald Bryson. “That’s very interesting when you consider that this poll shows Republican leads in every other race in the poll, including president, state Supreme Court, and six other Council of State positions.”
Absentee-by-mail ballots are 28 days away from going out, early in-person voting is 69 days away, and Election Day is 88 days away, so there is still time for things to change in the Tar Heel state. Gov. Roy Cooper appeared on MSNBC recently and he believes North Carolina is on its way to turning blue this November.
“I think that with this race in November … in the state with Trump’s closest win … the data shows we can flip North Carolina for the Democrats,” Cooper said. “It’s pretty clear that the Harris campaign believes that too … we are ready to engage our young people, who are excited for this, so we just have to keep the fever pitch.”