The election of Donald Trump to the presidency in 2024 has left many asking questions: how, after losing reelection in 2020, could Trump regain power and defeat a more than qualified candidate? While there may be many contributing factors, there may be an explanation in the number of people who turned out to vote nationwide.
The Pew Research Center released a report examining and comparing the voter turnout rates for 2020 and 2024. In the 2024 presidential election, a higher number of Trump’s 2020 voters turned out to vote than voters who cast their ballots for Biden in 2020. Trump also won a higher percentage of those who had not voted in 2020. The overall voter turnout rate in 2020 was 66 percent — the highest in U.S. history — while in 2024, that number dropped to 64 percent.
Among all 2020 Trump voters, 89 percent voted in 2024, compared with 85 percent among Biden’s 2020 voters, showing that both overall and across most demographic groups in the population, Trump’s 2020 voters turned out at higher rates than Biden’s did.
The turnout difference was larger among Latino/a voters than among many other groups, according to Pew Research Center – 86 percent of Trump’s 2020 Latino/a voters turned out in 2024, compared with 77 percent of Biden’s Latino voters. Trump also had more turnout with men and women, adults 35 and older, and those with no college degree. Almost no difference was found in 2024 turnout among 2020 Trump and Biden voters who are white.
Voters ages 22 to 34 in 2024 had a three percentage point difference between turnout for those who voted for Biden (77 percent) and those who voted for Trump (80 percent). Young adults were a larger share of those who opted not to vote in 2024 than in 2020 (30 percent vs. 25 percent), with citizens under age 30 making up only 15 percent of all voters in 2024.
Trump performed strongest among voters who turned out in 2024 but skipped the 2020 and 2022 elections. Those who voted only in 2024 – despite being eligible in the prior two cycles – backed Trump by a wide margin (55 percent to 41 percent) and made up 12 percent of the electorate.
Voters who participated in both the 2020 and 2024 presidential elections but not the 2022 midterms (22 percent of voters) leaned slightly toward Harris (51 percent to 47 percent).
The majority of voters (64 percent) who participated in all three elections were nearly evenly split, with Trump at 50 percent and Harris at 48 percent.
Data from North Carolina does reflect some of what is going on at national level. Trump improved on his 2020 performance in North Carolina, expanding his margin from 1.3 percent to 3.2 percent in 2024, according to state election data. As in 2020, he dominated rural areas. Trump managed to flip 38 Biden-won precincts, while Democratic nominee Kamala Harris flipped 37 that had backed Trump, a News & Observer analysis found.
Unlike nationwide trends, more North Carolinians went to the polls in the 2024 election, with over 5.7 million folks casting a ballot compared to the over 4.6 million in 2020. However, Democratic strongholds across the state – including Mecklenburg County – had decreases in turnout.
According to the North Carolina Board of Elections, just a bit more than 68 percent of eligible voters in Mecklenburg County participated in the 2024 election – a four percentage decrease from 2020. Turnout in Mecklenburg County surged in northern precincts and the county’s affluent southern corridor, from just south of uptown east to Mint Hill, where some areas topped 80 percent. Participation lagged in Charlotte’s lower-income neighborhoods: north, east and west of uptown where turnout dropped to as low as 43 percent. Harris did win in Mecklenburg County, but her margin of victory tightened by nearly two percentage points when compared to Biden in 2020.
There is a conclusion one can concur from the data – low voter turnout from key demographics and precincts may have contributed to Trump’s descent back into the White House. While it’s impossible to travel back in time and change the outcome, folks can mobilize and organize for the upcoming midterm elections this November.
It’s important now more than ever, to make sure you make a plan to go vote in both the primary election in March and the midterm election this fall. Encourage your family and friends to make sure their voter registration information is up to date, and make sure you have a valid form of identification, as North Carolina is a voter ID state.
In other places across the country where special elections have been held, Democrats have predominantly swept – including in a race for Texas State Senate that has always been “reliably Republican.” Voters have made it a mission in these places to turn out and use their ballots to voice their concerns with the current administration and its policies. North Carolina can definitely do the same.